Report led by Blair recognises heat pumps’ potential

The Climate Group has issued a report titled “Breaking the Climate Deadlock: Technology for a Low Carbon Future”. Led by former UK Prime Minister Tony Blair, the Climate Deadlock initiative seeks to bring consensus on a new and comprehensive international climate policy framework through working with world leaders in the topic.

The report concludes that the strategy that should be adopted in Copenhagen needs to focus on existing energy efficiency and renewable energy technologies, including heat pumps, along with efforts to halt deforestation, which can deliver major short-term cuts in emissions. Investing in next generation technologies - carbon capture and storage, new approaches to nuclear and solar, and emerging biotech based solutions – are other proposals that will drive down emissions through to the middle of the century.

Heat pumps can reduce 0.77 GtCO₂ in 2050

Heat pumps are 1 out of 17 key technologies which according to IEA’s BLUE Map Scenario will be responsible for approximately 80% of total emissions reductions needed to 2050, equivalent to 42 GtCO₂. Heat pumps have the potential to provide savings of 0.77 GtCO₂ (1.6% of overall energy-related emissions reduction), if the technology is deployed in 50-70% of buildings in OECD countries by 2050.

Commercial investment in heat pump technology is needed in the short run

The total global investment costs needed for the 17 key technologies identified by the IEA between now and 2050 is “significant but manageable”, reads the report. Total annual average investment for R&D, deployment and commercialisation is estimated at close to $1 trillion for both public and private investment, an equivalent to approximately 40% of global infrastructure investment or 1.4% of world GDP.

The balance between push (RD&D Investment) and pull factors (commercial investment) for key technologies is then discussed. “Between now and 2030, RD&D push is required for most technologies to drive them towards innovation. This is especially relevant for CCS, next-generation nuclear and renewable technologies. However, in the short run, pull factors for commercial investment are also required for energy efficiency, electric and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles and heat pumps. Beyond 2030, pull factors are expected to dominate nearly all the technologies”.

For the case of heat pumps, between now and 2015, R&D, demonstration and deployment investment (market push) of about $9bn per annum is required (total investment covering both public and private sector) to drive the technology to full commercial potential. Between now and 2050, commercial investment (market push) of about $96bn per annum is required to diffuse the technology globally.

Deployment pathways for heat pumps

According to the report:

• Further RD&D is essential to improve technical and economic performance of heat pumps by 2020. Their cost-effectiveness, energy efficiency and carbon footprint can be improved by 50% between 2020 and 2030. 50-70% of buildings in OECD will need to be fitted with heat-pumping technologies by 2050.
• Half of the emissions savings from heat pumps are expected to be captured in developing countries and the other half in OECDc ountries.
• Further RD&D is needed to develop more energy-efficient, sustainable and cost-effective heat pumping technologies.
• Actions on policies are required to ensure all building codes promote energy conservation and efficiency measures.
• Most countries should have policies that recognise the benefits of heat pumps.

About the Breaking the Climate Deadlock initiative and the Climate Group

Having been the first major head of government to bring climate change to the top of the international political agenda at the Gleneagles G8 summit in 2005, Tony Blair is now leading the ‘Breaking the Climate Deadlock’ initiative, a strategic partnership with The Climate Group, through which he is working with world leaders to bring consensus on a new and comprehensive international climate policy framework.

The Climate Group is an independent NGO working internationally with business and government leaders to advance practical policies and technologies necessary to cut global emissions and drive a prosperous low carbon economy.