Alarming HFC report counts on effective MAC Directive

A new study, published by the Netherlands Environment Agency on 22 June, has taken the question of how early HFCs should be phased out, to a higher level. In the business-as-usual scenario, the document predicts that HFCs could account for up to 45% of CO₂ equivalents by 2050, or nine gigatonnes, if untackled. This amount is far greater than those expected in previously drawn scenarios, such as those by SRES and IPCC/TEAP.

HFC134 in the spotlight

HFC 134a is given specific attention in the study, as the globally rising emissions from a conservative 80% penetration of global cars with the high global warming HFC pose a special threat to the planet.

While the baseline scenario assumes that no new regulations are adopted to counter the increase in HFCs, the study builds on the EU MAC Directive prescribing a gradual phaseout of HFC 134a in Europe from 2011 to be implemented as planned:

“The baseline scenario takes into account that in Europe the use of HFC-134a for mobile AC in new cars will be phased out between 2011-2017. (…) Projections for HFC-134a are calculated separately from the other HFCs. The baseline scenarios take into account rapidly growing consumption of HFC-134a for mobile AC.”

Europe's carmakers call for further delay

While findings trust that currently adopted legislation will be enforced in time, the European automotive association ACEA has called in a letter sent to the European Commission some weeks ago for a two to three year delay in implementing the EU MAC Directive. If granted, this could significantly aggravate the already grim scenario outlined in the study.

As international media coverage had shown in the last days, ACEA is currently trying to move EU legislators to drop the 2011 deadline to allow for more lead-time needed to choose new air conditioning systems. Over the last 2 years, global discussions about which refrigerant to choose as a replacement in MAC had heated up, with European carmakers now trying to avoid a switch to an R134a alternative from 2011 on alltogether.  The findings presented on 22 June and lauded by the international political and scientific community around the world, have added fuel to the fire in a discussion how to avoid the worst impacts from growing HFC emissions worldwide.

Natural refrigerants a solution

Despite its compactness, the Velders report finds time to mention natural refrigerants, including CO₂ (R744), ammonia, and hydrocarbons, as suitable replacements in both small and large systems expertly managed.

Reactions

The report drafted by Guus Velders, the lead author from the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, was welcomed by the United Nations Environment Programme, stating that swift action to freeze and reduce HFCs could buy the world the equivalent of a decade's worth of carbon dioxide emissions. To which Kert Davies, Greenpeace US Research Director, added that technologically and economically market-ready replacements to HFCs, such as R744 MACs, are ready for deployment provided adequate incentives are given.

Ozone-friendly substances become climate enemies

The study based its findings on the projected response to regulation of ozone depleting gases under the Montreal protocol. The scenario is based on current HCFC consumption patterns of replacements of HCFCs by HFCs, and GDP growth.

The Parties to the Montreal Protocol agreed to cut production and consumption of HCFCs in developing countries by 35% in 2020 and 67.5% in 2025 whilst developed countries agreed to phase down HCFCs by 75% in 2010 and then 100% by 2020.

As HFCs have until now been used to replace CFCs/HCHCs in most applications, the lack of further regulation would lead to the above-mentioned scenario.